Category: Technology

Apple could be prepping space venture

At first, it could be mistaken for a conventional, albeit extraordinarily sleek, airplane. The craft’s engines roar, and it picks up speed as it races down the runway. Upon liftoff, though, it doesn’t level off like an ordinary plane, but continues upwards at an increasing angle as if it’s straining to reach the stars. Suddenly, booster rockets kick in, and the craft reveals itself to be a true spaceship, rising higher and higher into the sky, its clean white body marked only with a light grey Apple logo on the tail.

It may sound far-fetched, but it might make sense for a computer maker that’s revving on all engines and enjoying iconic status as a purveyor of all things cool. After all, who would have thought just a few years ago that Apple would own such a large percent of the music business. And surely Apple’s cult-like followers would line up to plunk down big bucks for a ride on the “iCraft.”

Practically admitting the rumors were true, Apple refused comment on the story.

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OK, back to reality — “down to earth,” if you will.

The above scenario is pure wild-eyed speculation, based on absolutely no evidence and fewer facts. Which means it’s got a lot in common with another piece of nonsense published in Forbes. All that’s missing in our little piece of fiction is a quote from Rob Enderle, who’s practically made a cottage industry of writing dumb, wrong things about Apple.

In “Everybody in the Pool,” Forbes writer David M. Ewalt reports on how Apple is considering launching its own mobile phone network. Go ahead, read the story. Now read it again. Nowhere is there a shred of evidence — or anything other than Ewalt’s imagination, for that matter — to suggest the story might be true. To give the writer credit, (I suppose) he doesn’t even try; there isn’t even a suggestion of an “according to sources who wish to remain anonymous” attribution. The only facts in the story concern other companies’ plans, not Apple’s. Disney, for instance, has announced it plans to launch a “family-centric” wireless network. ESPN has already launched a service, as has convenience store chain 7-Eleven. How Ewalt makes the leap to Apple launching a service is no less reality-defying than our own little iCraft fantasy.

The one item that relates Apple to phones is the iTunes-enabled phone being developed with Motorola. Since when is launching a mobile network a prerequisite to developing a mobile phone? And why would Apple want to limit the potential distribution of such a phone to its own fledgling network? Even Enderle’s quote doesn’t suggest that. He only asserts that mobile carriers would prefer to sell music through their own service and would rather have an iTunes phone sync through their networks rather than a computer.

So why make Apple the focus of this piece of pure speculation? My guess is it’s because stories about Apple draw eyeballs. Lots of them. And lots of eyeballs translate into lots of advertising dollars. It’s an old trick that still works. Even when Apple wasn’t the wunderkind of American, even worldwide, culture, websites would run “Apple is dying” stories that would incite Macophiles, excite PC users and make giddy the advertisers who were serving ads to everyone. These days, however, its getting harder to run that kind of story without looking genuinely clueless, so “What-secret-device-will-Apple-unveil-next” stories are taking their place — to the delight, no doubt, of the twenty or so advertisers on the page hosting the Forbes article.

“Everybody in the Pool” could have been a nice little look at boutique phone networks, and the ways companies are extending their brand equity through emerging technologies. It could have been a nice thought piece about why Apple might want to consider such a move — but that would have required analysis, and analysis is hard work. Instead, it becomes a sensationalist supposition unworthy of Forbes, good for nothing but generating page views. It can’t even be called a piece of good old rumor-mongering, because by all the evidence available in his article, Ewalt isn’t reporting on rumors, he’s making them up.

So does that mean Apple isn’t launching its own phone network? I have no idea. But based on what we can see in Ewalt’s article, neither does he.

Editorial: GraphicPower ‘blacklisting’ looks more like apathy than conspiracy

A slow but steady outcry has been building up within the web-based Mac press over the revocation of GraphicPower’s media credentials for the upcoming Macworld New York Conference and Expo. Unfortunately, some in the Mac web have turned it into an ill-informed, inbred hissyfit based mainly on second and thirdhand reports, and the idea that if two or more sites quote the same piece of innuendo it qualifies as “confirmed by independent sources.”

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The Perfect Mac: why Apple still can’t get me to dump Ol’ Betsy

betsy_frameI know this is not what Steve Jobs wants to hear, but I haven’t sent a dime to Cupertino for a piece of hardware since midway through Bill Clinton’s second term.

It’s not that I don’t want to support the mothership, so please don’t flame me for being “disloyal.” I’ve dutifully handed over my ducats on things like AppleWorks and the Mac OS X Public Beta (not only the first one, but that second one, too — better known as 10.0), and I’ve helped keep more than my share of Mac peripheral makers in the black.

But back in those days when there was just one George Bush, and the only Monica the president lusted after was played by Courtney Cox on “Friends,” I had the uncharacteristic good luck to purchase one of the best computers Apple ever produced: a 233MHz beige G3 desktop.

You see, what Apple produced in those early days following Steve Jobs return was a machine he had little to do with developing. Introduced in late 1997, the G3 is arguably the most expandable Mac ever made.

I’ll also venture to guess that Betsy is the last of her kind: an eminently expandable, easily upgradeable workhorse. She was a product of her times, when Apple was in the midst of its self-imposed competition with cloners, and before Steve Jobs brought back with a vengeance the concept of planned obsolescence.

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Imagine what kind of shape Apple would be in if every Mac it made had such a lifespan. Computer companies rely on customers upgrading their machines. Some industry analysts look for lifecyles of 18 months or so. By that standard, that makes Betsy about 160 in “PC years.” PC manufacturers have to count on advancements in operating systems, software and peripheral technologies to drive new sales. No wonder Microsoft stays in the software business.

Luckily for me, Gil Amelio was too busy trying to keep people from parking in his space to notice his engineers had taken the concept of plug and play and used it to build what is essentially a modular computer with the ability to morph into something far beyond what anyone could have envisioned when it rolled off the assembly line.

Thanks to its replaceable processor, Ol’ Betsy now beats with the heart of a 500MHz G4, and is packed with 620-or-so megs of RAM. Her three PCI slots are filled with an ATI Rage 128 Pro video card, a Firewire/USB combo card and, most recently, a 133MHz IDE controller card, which let me add two additional internal hard drives, with the potential for two more. A DVD-ROM internal drive and a CD-R/W external Firewire drive keep her in step with the times. (A DVD burner isn’t out of the question, either.) In fact, Ol’ Bet is so current, I finally gave her floppy drive the heave ho in order to make room for another internal hard drive.

Perhaps best of all, I’m happy to report that my diminutive little G3 runs Mac OS X like a champ – with no discernible difference from the Quicksilver G4 that sits in my office.

With each new Macworld announcement, I wonder if Steve Jobs will unveil something that finally prompts me to put Betsy out to pasture. And although the new iMacs are tempting, they offer no compelling reason to ditch the G3, especially considering I’d have to give up my 20” monitor. But my battle-scarred Betsy runs Photoshop, iMovie, iTunes, iPhoto, FileMaker Pro, Adobe InDesign — and even Quake — with aplomb. Thanks to its remarkable expandability, I haven’t had to miss out on a single of Apple’s “iApps,” and I have over 110 gigabytes of storage inside – plus another 60 or so on an external Firewire drive.

Alas, though, it looks like I’ll finally have to come to grips with the fact that the old gal’s days may be numbered at last. At the Worldwide Developers Conference, Steve Jobs announced that the next iteration of Mac OS X – codenamed Jaguar – would feature hardware graphics acceleration that would require high-end AGP graphics cards; an addition my G3 isn’t ever likely to see.

The jury is still out on whether Jaguar will run on older systems without the hardware boost, though, and my guess is it will. If that’s the case, Bet and I may not have to part company for some time to come. We may be coming to the end of the road, but I think there are still a lot of places left to see before we get there.

A final note: lest you think I’ve developed an unnatural affection for my computer (and my wife would probably swear to it), I did not actually name it “Ol’ Betsy.” That was just for the purposes of this column.

I’m glad we cleared that up. After all, naming a computer Ol’ Betsy would be just plain weird.

I just call her schnookums.

The Genesis of Online Publishing, or: Adam and Steve in the Garden of Readin’

In the beginning, there was the word.

But it was quickly followed by concerns about distribution channels, business models and revenue streams.

Over the past two years, two different authors — horror master Stephen King and TidBITs publisher Adam Engst — have made attempts at bypassing traditional paper-and-ink publishing and physical distribution in favor of a completely electronic model. Other than the “electronic-ness” of their offerings, though, the two experiments have very little in common.

When King conducted his experiment in online publishing in 2000, he wrote a serialized novel, The Plant, and made it available for download — one chapter at a time, purchased on the honor system. But there was a twist: if the pay-to-download ratio dipped below 75%, writing would cease and the experiment would be deemed a failure — proof that people weren’t trustworthy enough not to “steal from the blind newsboy,” as King put it.

After just a few installments of The Plant, though, King announced that writing on future chapters would cease while he “devoted himself to other projects.” While not out-and-out charging readers with assault on that sightless paper carrier, the implication was certainly there; according to the New York Times, the percentage of paid downloads of the latest chapter had dipped into the forties.

There’s room for more than one conclusion from King’s experiment, though: one that doesn’t require indicting the majority of The Plant readers as thieves. The most obvious is that King’s plan to sell and distribute The Plant was based on a bad business plan and flawed analogies. One that even in the most optimistic scenario could only have worked for someone of King’s stature, anyway, and therefore would have been meaningless for the publishing industry as a whole — or for authors in general.

What King wanted his readers to do is pay $1 for each of the first three installments (for each format: PDF, html, plain-text, PDA-formatted) of his story. Although King couldn’t say exactly how may installments would comprise The Plant, he did commit to a maximum charge of $13 — about the price of a hard cover novel, he wrote on his website. Some readers immediately criticized the cost as too high. They complained that when they paid for the paper and toner/ink to print the installments, the price would rise even higher.

There were even more vociferous complaints over King’s insistence that each time you downloaded a particular installment, you had to pay again or be labeled a leech. The problems were obvious: Accidentally erase installment one? Here’s another, please proceed to the cashier. Want to read it on your Palm at the beach? Sorry, you downloaded the PDF. If you want a version formatted for a handheld, pony up another buck.

I don’t think the problem here is greed, but rather King’s flawed comparison between paper and virtual publishing. The Plant may wind up costing about the same as a traditional novel, but it’s not one. Long documents like novels are not easily read on screen, and the cost of the paper and toner or ink to print out each installment is not insubstantial. Further, the electronic version of the book doesn’t have nearly the same production costs associated with it. Sure, there’s the cost of hosting the site, the bandwidth charges for the thousands of downloads and the processing costs of online payments. But that’s nothing compared to the cost of make-ready, galleys, film, plates, printing, binding, book jackets, distribution, publisher’s markup, seller’s markup, promotional displays, etc., etc. For King to compare the two methods that way is either disingenuous or naive. If I am going to pay full price for a book, you’d better believe I’m going for the one that I can pick up and hold, read in bed or on a park bench, put on a bookshelf, save for my kids or donate to my public library. The potential of online publishing is that it makes it possible to get literature distributed without the overhead of conventional publishing. And if it’s going to succeed, the prices of the online titles must be substantially lower than those of their paper-and-ink counterparts.

Another complaint was that King expected payment each time a file was downloaded, even if it was just a different format of the same installment, for instance, by a reader who downloaded a PDF version, then wanted to read it on the train with an eBook. King’s analogy was that was akin to walking into a bookstore and telling the clerk that since you already had the hardcover version of a book, you expected to get the paperback version for free. It’s an analogy that doesn’t work on several fronts. First, if you already have a physical copy of a book, it’s unlikely you’d need another one. You can take the same book with you on that subway, or the living room of your house, or into the bathroom of your office, for that matter. With an electronic book, you are tied to the hardware that can display it. (Just try getting your desktop computer into your office bathroom.) Besides, a hardcover and a paperback version of the same book each has a significant cost associated with its production; there is no additional cost in producing another copy of the same electronic file. Again, physicality carries extra costs that virtual products don’t. By not realizing this, King virtually doomed his virtual experiment.

Think of it this way: for King’s experiment to have been considered any kind of success, it would have to be repeatable. But who, other than someone with the following and status of Stephen King or Tom Clancy or John Grisham, would have had even a chance of pulling it off?

This week, technology writer and TidBITs publisher Adam Engst wrote that he was conducting an experiment in online publishing of his own. Backed by Peachpit Press, Engst is publishing his forthcoming book (about Apple’s iPhoto) as a PDF list priced at $20; buyers will then get a paper-and-ink version of the book’s next edition for free. “It was a perfect solution,” Engst wrote in his newsletter, crediting his wife Tonya for the idea. “Since it didn’t require people to figure out the value of an electronic book, it wouldn’t automatically cannibalize sales of the next edition, and it would ensure that people could benefit from the book for months before the next edition would be available.”

Engst faced the same concerns about “robbing the blind newsboy” that King did, but took a decidedly different stance. “The only people who will have it initially are people who have paid for it,” he wrote, “and my foreword to the electronic edition asks them to share the book as though it were a physical book, at least in the sense of asking the recipients to buy their own copy if they’re using it a lot.”

Still, Engst is realistic about unauthorized copying, and comes to a conclusion the horror writer might find, well, shocking. “After a while, I’m sure there will be copies floating around from a variety of pass-along situations, but you know what? I think that’s a good thing. This electronic book will be obsolete within a few months, and it will be replaced with a paper edition that can’t easily be copied. Sure, some people will get a copy, read it, and determine it’s not worth buying. That’s fine with me — they would have been unlikely to buy it anyway, so no harm done. Others will get a copy, find that it’s useful, and purchase a copy so they can have the print version when that comes out. That’s great — the copies served as free advertising. And undoubtedly there will be some who will get a copy, find it useful, and never pay, which sounds much like what happens with books stored in those subversive organizations called libraries. Frankly, I don’t mind — I’m happy that someone will have benefited from my efforts in such a way that doesn’t add to my email workload.”

The different roads to online publishing taken by King and Engst belie their different backgrounds. King, coming from conventional publishing, sees electronic publishing as analogous to the physical method.

Engst, on the other hand, with his technological perspective, sees things differently. As we wrote back when King uprooted his experiment with The Plant, there’s a far better analogy he could have used in creating the business model for his literary experiment, and it’s one every online denizen, including Engst, is already aware of.

Shareware.

The difference between commercial software and shareware is basically the same as conventional publishing and electronic publishing: overhead. Eliminate the physical production, distribution and promotion of a product and you greatly reduce its cost. By passing on this cost savings (or at least a good deal of it) to your customers, you make it worthwhile for them to forego any of the benefits of the physical model and put up with any inconveniences associated with the virtual (like downloading files, or printing out your own pages).

Here’s our humble suggestion for fixing Stephen King’s experiment. Online books should always be priced significantly lower than an equivalent paperback. We say no more than five dollars — maybe $10 for a long title like King’s more expansive efforts. Like software, your money buys you a license to what’s in the file. That means you can download any format of the same title for no additional charge, but you may not give the file (or a copy, printed or otherwise) away for someone else to read.

The title should be complete, or if there are further installments, they should be available at no extra charge, and should be password protected so only those who paid for them can read them.

If Stephen King put this experiment to the test, we think he could start a real electronic publishing revolution — one that could impact authors who might otherwise never reach a broad audience.

In the meantime, Engst’s experiment with dual-publishing — still at least loosely based on the shareware concept — strikes us as having a much better chance to succeed, and to have a far more long-lasting impact on publishing.

Stephen King uprooted The Plant, but Adam Engst may have planted the seed for a whole new way of publishing.

Start spreadin’ the news: The RandomMaccess Guide to Macworld NY 2000

You’re not in Kansas anymore, Toto, but don’t panic. Macworld in the Big City can be a breeze. Just don’t act like a tourist.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again — Macworld is part cult revival, part geek-fest, part carnival, and all fun. PC World may be bigger, Internet World may get more buzz, but for good ol’ enthusiasm and camaraderie , nothing outside Heaven’s Gate can even compare. At Macworld, you’re among your own kind; there’s something special about knowing that the Mac-centric phrases that earn you funny looks from your family and friends will more often than not be finished for you by your fellow evangelistas before you can get them out of your mouth. Where else can you wax nostalgic about what a workhorse your old IIci was, or the first time to saw the Graphing Calculator demo? Not even your fellow User Group members are likely to put up with much of that.

The fact that Apple is in a new Golden Era makes the Expo even more exciting. There’s a palpable charge in the air — a realization that really, REALLY cool things are going on here, and that somehow you’re a part of it. At last year’s love fest, yours truly was sitting in the press section during Steve Job’s keynote. As he wrapped up the introduction of the iBook, he announced that a hundred iBook-laden Apple employees were scattered throughout the audience to let us get our hands on the clamshell notebook. Turning to my left, I realized that the person sitting next to me was wearing an Apple polo shirt and had a canvas bag on her lap. “I guess I picked the right seat,” I said to her. “I guess you did,” she replied, and handed me a Tangerine-flavored iBook, hooked up to the web via AirPort. The first site I called up: your favorite Users Group site, of course.

Cool.

I don’t know what’s in store for this year’s Expo, but I’m laying down money that Steve will manage a surprise or two. The iMac line is getting a little long in the tooth, and I’m personally hoping for an Apple-branded PDA, but regardless of the announcements, there’s sure to be a lot to get excited about.

To help you get the most out of your Macworld experience, we’ve put together a few tips. Ignore them if you will, but consider they come from someone who’s been on both sides of the velvet rope quite a few times.

Traveling in New York

C’mon, you live in New Jersey, don’t even think of staying in a Manhattan hotel. Don’t think of driving, either. For me, the only way to cross the Hudson is by rail. The trains today are convenient, cleaner, usually cool and they run frequently — especially during rush hour. Don’t get me wrong, mass transit is no gondola ride through Venice, but it’s a heck of a lot better than fighting midtown traffic, avoiding gridlock and playing chicken with other cars trying to merge into the tunnel. Both NJ Transit and the PATH trains will get you right into Penn Station. From there, it’s a short ride west (I prefer to walk) to the Javits Center. (You can get a schedule for NJ Transit trains here.)

Brown Bag It

Food prices in the Expo center are obscene — only tourists stand on line for an hour to pay six bucks for a small Coke. If you get hungry, walk a couple blocks east and grab a hot dog or gyro from a food cart vendor (the food’s terrific as long as you don’t think about it too much), or hit the local McDonald’s (food’s not as good, but you’ll probably stress about it less). You can always fill up on the candies and snacks some exhibitors give away, but do them the courtesy of picking up some literature or listening to their pitch for a minute or two — it’s good exhibit etiquette. And by all means, never pass up a booth giving away bottled water. It costs $4 at the snack stands and it’s worth its weight in gold after schlepping around the exhibit floor for a couple hours.

You can take it with you — but don’t

There’s a weird urge to bring you Mac with you to an Expo. Maybe it’s akin to cruisin’ Main Street in your cherry muscle car on a Saturday night, or lifting weights on the boardwalk at Muscle Beach. Part desire to preen, part to show off your toys, your connectedness — whatever. If you take no other piece of advice with you to the Javits Center this summer take this one: When that urge to stuff your PowerBook or your iBook in your favorite satchel or bookbag strikes, fight it. Heck, beat it to a pulp. Then kick it while it’s down. Then stomp up and down on it a few times to makes sure it’s dead. The absurd thing is that this is not advice that should even need to be given. The Expo Center is a packed, sweaty place, full of people who will bump you, shove you, and push you out of their way (and let me take this opportunity to apologize for my part in that right now). You will be burdened with flyers, folders, t-shirts, brochures, demo disks and other miscellaneous items of dubious worth until you feel like your arms are going to shear off at the shoulders. The last thing you need to carry is your computer. There are e-mail stations througout the hall, and nobody’s going to send you a message that’s that critical, anyway. Bring a pad of paper and a pen to take notes — heck, don’t even bother with the pen, you can get plenty at the Expo.

The 100-booth dash

With so many exhibitors to see, it’s easy to wind up missing something. Here’s my tactic for making sure I hit all the highlights. Count on doing at least two rounds through the hall. Make your first trip a sort of reconnasaince mission — just breeze through the aisles, stopping for as little as possible, making notes of things that catch your interest. Then, once you’ve worked your way to the end, use your list as an itinerary for your next pass. By this point, you’ll be able to focus on the exhibitors and products that are important to you, and bypass the “filler” in between. You’re bound to find an extra gem or two that you didn’t see on your first go-around, but you’re sure to waste a lot less time. Even better, visit the expo site, print out the exhibitors list, and use that as your starting point — checking off the must-sees, crossing out the must-misses.

How much are you willing to pay for a free t-shirt?

Post-It Note pads, pens, keychains and other tchockes are in abundance at trade shows. T-shirts, however, are rarer now than in years gone by, and competition for them can get pretty fierce — and pretty silly. Here are a couple of the ways companies are capitalizing on the free shirt frenzy — don’t let yourself get caught in their traps.

  • The “Visit Our Partners Booth” ploy. – Microsoft is big on this one. The premise is that you get a card or collect a certain amount of plastic coins by visiting different booths around the hall. Bring back the required booty, and you’ll get a free t-shirt. The problem is, you can only get the stamp or coin by listening to the sales pitch at each booth. That can waste a lot of your time, and subject you to some pretty inane banter.
  • The “Sit Through Our Presentation for a Chance to Win” game. Some companies hold in-booth demos or “learning sessions.” In reality, they’re usually just sales pitches. In order to entice you to sit through them, they’ll dangle the chance to win one of a small number of t-shirts to those who sit through their spiel. It’s a different variation of the same idea — a freebie (or at least the chance of one) in exchange for your time.

Now I’m not saying that there’s anything wrong with either of these tactics. All I’m saying is that you’ve got to measure the value of a free t-shirt against the value of your time — time you could be using to learn about things that really interest you, or are relevant to your job and/or company. In my experience, it usually turns out to be a really expensive t-shirt.

Live and learn

If you’re lucky enough to have been able to scrounge or buy a conferences badge, by all means, take advantage of them. The quality of Macworld Expo presentations is usually top-notch, with the A-list of the Mac elite showing off their skills — and hawking their books. The educational conferences are usually excellent as well. Last year’s Photoshop session made me feel like an absolute newbie, but reignited my enthusiasm for a program I had been seriously under-utilizing. Watch out for the sales presentations-in-disguise, though. These are usually held at the vendor’s booth and are always free. Like the t-shirt ploy, it’s primarily designed to get you to sit through a sales pitch for as long as possible.

Life on the streets

Our last bit of advice isn’t meant for the Expo floor, but rather for outside the Javits Center. New York is a far more tourist-friendly place, but it’s still a big city, so use common sense. Take your badge off when outside the center. Your bulging tote bags may still give you away, but there’s no need to advertise the fact that you’re an out-of-towner. Stay in heavily trafficked, well-lit areas, and don’t give money to strangers. The story about the guy who got mugged on his way home to Virginia leaving him just a few bucks shy of train fare home (which he’ll gladly forward to you if you give him your address) may be heart-breaking, but it just ain’t so. If you’re uncomfortable giving him the brush-off, point him back towards the Javits Center and tell him to contact the authorities there. Then keep your eyes forward and walk away.

Heck, if you were that gullible, you’d be running Windows.